Best Betting Odds for 2020 Presidential Election (Biden +112/ Trump +244)

With the 2020 Election upcoming, there is wide speculation on the outcome of the result. Most polls put Biden up near double-digit margins; however, we have seen how inaccurate certain polls can be from 2016. Offshore betting website such as Bovada and Betway have Biden -150 to -190 and Trump +145 to +150, implying an approximate 60% chance of a Biden win.

While these odds are much closer to an “even” election relative to political models such as 538 politics that shows Biden’s chances of winning the election close to 87%, there are legal methods for U.S. gamblers to get amazing odds.

The Strategy

Using the site PredictIt, we can craft a pure Biden/Trump victory that allows the most potential upside from correctly picking the 2020 Presidential winner.

Assuming we want to max out our candidates position ($850), we would deposit $668 into our account. Then we first look at the “Electoral College margin in the 2020 presidential election?” market where currently $0.21 / share of negative risk resides according to pibuck.cash. Maxing out the negative risk in this market could generate $182 ($0.21 / share * 867 shares) of “free” money.

If negative risk is a new concept for you or are not exactly sure how to claim the free $182 up for grabs, read my last article on arbitrage profits available on PredictIt

Electoral College Margin Market; $0.21 / share Negative Risk

Now that we have generated our negative risk and have $850 in our account, we will head over to the “Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?” market. Currently for Biden we can get 60% odds on Trump losing the election (Biden winning; effective -150) and for Trump we can get 37% odds on Biden losing the election (Trump winning; effective +170).

2020 Presidential Election Market

If we were to go “all-in”, i.e. put the $850 in our account, our payoff for Biden winning would be gross $1,416 and since we only originally deposited $668 in our account our return would be 112% (an implied +112 odds for Biden).

Similarly, we can do the exercise for Trump. Our payoff for Trump winning would be $2,297 and with our original deposit of $668 our return would be 244% (an implied +244 odds).

Below is a chart to summarize the results:

Payoff Table; statistics as of October 25, 2020

Conclusion

PredictIt allows a negative risk strategy that benefits the reader into gaining “free” cash that can be used to leverage in the 2020 Presidential market and gaining an advantageous odds compared to any offshore site.

As always, feel free to leave any comments or questions.

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Finance Professional. Politics Enthusiast.

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